by Are you really in control of your project decisions?
In IT project management, we pride ourselves on being logical, data-driven, and objective. But there’s a hidden force undermining those good intentions: cognitive bias. And one of the most dangerous is anchor bias.
Once it grabs hold, it quietly distorts your estimates, vendor choices, and even how you assess risk. The good news? You can spot it and stop it.
What Is Anchor Bias, and Why Should You Care?
Anchor bias happens when we place too much weight on the first piece of information we hear, the “anchor.” That initial number, idea, or estimate shapes all future decisions, often without us realizing it.
First identified by psychologists Tversky and Kahneman in the 1970s, anchoring bias has been shown to significantly impact various fields, including project management.
In the world of IT projects, this can lead to:
- Unrealistic timelines
- Underestimated budgets
- Inflexible plans
- Missed opportunities
It’s a bias that’s invisible but powerful, often revealed only when deadlines are missed or systems crash.
Where Anchor Bias Manifests in IT Project Management
Knowing where to watch for bias is half the battle. Here’s where anchor bias typically shows up:
1. Estimation Pitfalls
- Budget Anchoring: Initial cost estimates become immovable, even after scope changes.
- Timeline Anchoring: Early (and overly optimistic) delivery dates stick in everyone’s mind.
- Scope Anchoring: Early feature discussions solidify into “must-haves,” even when no longer relevant.
Personal Note: In my years managing IT projects, I’ve watched stakeholders cling to kickoff timelines as gospel even after scope expanded or risks emerged. This fixation strains teams, warps priorities, and often leads to burnout or rushed delivery.
2. Vendor and Technology Bias
The first flashy demo or vendor pitch often becomes the favorite, sometimes irrationally so. Teams ignore better alternatives that come later.
3. Risk Management Gaps
If the first risk assessment seems low, it sets a dangerous precedent. Teams may:
- Downplay future threats
- Stick to the original plan even as red flags pile up
What’s the Real Cost of Anchor Bias in IT Projects?
It’s not just about bad estimates, it’s about compounding mistakes:
- Budget overruns
- Missed deadlines
- Compromised quality
- Stakeholder frustration
Anchor bias reduces agility, locking you into early decisions when flexibility is most needed.
Real-World Examples That Hit Hard
Hershey’s $100M ERP Disaster (1999)
Anchored to an overly aggressive 30-month launch deadline, Hershey’s ERP system failed during Halloween season. Result? $100M in missed sales, stock drops, and a lesson in the cost of anchoring to arbitrary dates.
Lidl’s €500M Project Abandonment (2011–2018)
Lidl clung to its initial customization demands with SAP for seven years before killing the project entirely. Their anchor? A legacy process that should have been left behind.
How to Beat Anchor Bias in IT Projects
Here’s how to outsmart it step by step:
1. Build Awareness
- Make cognitive bias training part of your PM culture.
2. Estimate from Multiple Angles
- Use three-point estimation: best-case, worst-case, and most likely
3. Challenge Early Assumptions
- Ask: “If we were starting from scratch today, would we still do this?”
4. Involve Diverse Voices
- More perspectives = fewer blind spots.
5. Run Pre-Mortem
- Imagine failure. Ask “What went wrong?” before it does.
6. Use Data, Not Just Gut Feel
- Historical benchmarks offer a reality check.
Your Role as a Project Manager: Break the Anchor
Project managers aren’t just task trackers, we’re decision stewards. Challenge assumptions. Create space for critical thinking. Promote rational project management that evolves with new info, not one that clings to outdated expectations.
Let’s Talk: Have You Faced Anchor Bias?
Have you seen this play out in your own projects?
Did anchoring to an estimate or idea derail your team’s progress?
- Share your story in the comments.
- Tag a PM who needs to hear this.
- Or better yet, forward this post to your team and start the conversation.
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