by 
As IT project managers, we’ve all been there: in a meeting where someone utters the dreaded phrase, “I knew it.” It can be a frustrating and disheartening experience, especially when you’re trying to raise an issue for the first time. I have had my share of those moments on several occasions and can attest to the overwhelming emotions that come with it.
But it’s essential to remember that this reaction is not unique to you or your team – it’s a common phenomenon known as the Hindsight Bias or the “knew-it-all-along” phenomenon.
I Knew It
The Hindsight Bias, also known as the “knew-it-all-along” phenomenon, refers to the tendency for people to perceive events that already occurred as being more predictable than they were before they took place. As a result, people often believe after an event has occurred, that they could have predicted, or even known with a high degree of certainty, what the outcome of the event would have been before it took place.
The hindsight bias can be difficult, especially if the severity of the issue is high and you are at the receiving end of criticism. Remember that people tend to place blame when a problem occurs. The harmful aspect of the hindsight bias is that it leads project members, particularly decision-makers, to focus more on the negative result rather than the process that generated it. This can lead to self-doubt and questioning one’s ability to identify risks and effectively manage a project.
It’s imperative to remember this is a common phenomenon when raising previously unknown risks or incidents. And two aspects of a project where hindsight bias is frequently occurring are the risk management process and decision-making. Keeping in mind these points helps ensure that the decision-making process is thorough and well-documented, which can prevent the team from being subject to unfair accusations and blame in the future.
Risk Management
Effective risk management is the key to the success of any project, and it all starts with tackling the hindsight bias head-on. Before you begin, it’s vital to acknowledge that not all risks are known or predictable. But don’t let that fool you into thinking that the project has no risks or that all are unknown. Instead, remind the project stakeholders and team members that unknown risks still exist, and you may not be able to prevent an issue from occurring, but being aware of potential trouble can help soften the blow when an unforeseen event does happen.
When identifying risks, it’s important to remember that it’s not the responsibility of just one person. Instead, share the burden by seeking input from project stakeholders, colleagues, and subject matter experts from other teams. This is one of the best ways to flush out as many risks as possible. But don’t just rely on your team members. Get creative and think outside the box. It’s important to remember that it’s impossible to determine whether an issue is a common sense or obvious when looking to the future. Only when we look to the past that we can be sure of the uncertainties existed.
Therefore, as you begin your risk management process, involve as many right people as possible. Once everyone agrees that the process is sufficient, remind everyone that it’s also incomplete because you can’t predict everything. Keep your stakeholders and team members engaged by involving them in the risk management process, and keep the conversation going to ensure that risks are identified and addressed on time.
Decision Making
Decision-making can be challenging, especially when the outcome is negative. Decision-makers often face unfair criticism for not anticipating potential issues during the decision-making process. This can be a frustrating and disheartening experience, and it’s not uncommon for people to become risk-averse as a result.
It’s important to remember that when making decisions, you will never have all the information you need and that it’s rare to have all the information. Admit that the result of the decision might cause an effect beyond what you originally conceived. And for your own sake, document the resolutions, agreements, and thought processes. Keeping these points in mind will help ensure that the decision-making process is thorough and well-documented, which can help protect the team and avoid unfair criticism and future accusations.
It’s also worth remembering to keep an open mind and be willing to take calculated risks. Instead of becoming discouraged by a negative outcome, learn from it and strive to make better decisions in the future. This way, the next time someone says, “I knew it,” you can confidently respond, “No, you didn’t.”
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